Australia
New Zealand Overview
Global freight indices may be easing, but Australia and New Zealand supply chains are facing a very different reality. Peak-season demand, carrier surcharges, and weather-driven disruption continue to push ocean freight costs higher, while air cargo remains a vital but capacity-constrained alternative. At the same time, tighter biosecurity rules and geopolitical uncertainty are reshaping trade flows and adding new layers of complexity.
For importers and exporters, the takeaway is clear: success will not come from tracking global averages, but from recognising Oceania’s unique dynamics, anticipating disruption, and acting early to protect cost and service performance. This update provides a clear assessment of current conditions and highlights the actions supply chain leaders should prioritise through September.
Ocean Freight — Reality vs Global Trends
Rates and Surcharges
On paper, container costs are falling: Drewry’s World Container Index dropped to US$2,250 per FEU on 21 August, a 15% decline from July’s highs. However, this does not reflect the situation in Oceania. Carriers are imposing Peak Season Surcharges (PSS), General Rate Increases (GRIs), and equipment imbalance fees that effectively override the global trend.
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Hapag-Lloyd introduced a US$300/TEU PSS on shipments from Asia, the Indian Subcontinent, and the Middle East into Australia, effective 1 August.
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ANL announced a GRI from North America to Australia and New Zealand effective 1 September. While this targets a different origin, it signals carrier determination to sustain higher pricing across Oceania trades.
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Several lines are also levying emergency congestion surcharges and equipment imbalance fees, adding further unpredictability to landed costs.
For Australian and New Zealand importers, this means that headline global rate relief will not flow through in the short term. Businesses should continue budgeting for higher costs through September, regardless of what global indices suggest.
Capacity and Reliability
Reliability is showing signs of improvement. Global on-time performance rose to 67.4% in June, the best level in 18 months. Maersk led the major carriers, while the Gemini Cooperation alliance has been operating at approximately 90% on-time performance, an encouraging trend for planners.
Yet capacity remains under pressure:
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Almost 50 blank sailings are scheduled across Asia–Oceania trades through late August and September as carriers manage supply.
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40-foot high-cube and refrigerated containers remain scarce, particularly at key Chinese load ports.
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Rollover risk is high for bookings made late, with carriers prioritising earlier reservations or higher-yield cargo.
Operational Challenges
Weather and congestion continue to disrupt schedules. Earlier this month, typhoons in Shanghai and Ningbo caused vessel backlogs and delays that rippled through feeder connections. On the destination side, Sydney is currently facing 1–3 day delays, while Brisbane, Melbourne, Auckland, and Tauranga are generally under one day — though week-to-week volatility remains.
Strategic Actions
For importers and exporters, the message is clear:
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Secure bookings 4–6 weeks in advance to guarantee uplift for critical shipments.
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Factor persistent surcharges into budgets despite falling global averages.
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Diversify carrier portfolios to mitigate rollover risk and maintain flexibility when blank sailings or congestion hit.
Air Freight — Resilience Amid Recovery
Market Dynamics
Global air cargo demand rose 0.8% year-on-year in June, according to IATA, while Asia-Pacific carriers achieved an impressive +8.3% YoY growth in international traffic. Capacity also expanded by 7.3% year-on-year, easing some pressure but pushing the global cargo load factor down to 45.5%.
For Oceania shippers, this means that while air freight is not under the extreme strain seen in previous years, seasonal peaks and regional surges still create short-term bottlenecks.
Regional Outlook
Demand continues to be driven by high-tech manufacturing, semi-finished goods, and e-commerce flows from Asia. Additional long-haul passenger flights into Sydney and Melbourne are gradually adding bellyhold capacity, but this will not eliminate all constraints. Seasonal peaks — including Asian public holidays — will continue to tighten space and drive short-term rate spikes.
Customs & Biosecurity — BMSB Season 2025/26
Australia (DAFF)
Australia’s new Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) season runs from 1 September 2025 to 30 April 2026. This year, the measures have been expanded:
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Japan and South Korea are now classified as emerging-risk countries, meaning targeted goods may be subject to additional inspections.
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Airfreight cargo from the USA and China will face random inspections if classified as high-risk.
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Ethyl Formate has been approved as a new offshore treatment method, alongside existing chemical and heat treatments.
New Zealand (MPI)
New Zealand continues to align closely with Australia. Importers must confirm HS codes and ensure treatment is conducted by MPI-approved offshore providers.
Compliance Imperatives
Non-compliance risks significant delays and additional costs. Importers and exporters should:
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Use only approved offshore treatment providers for targeted cargo.
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Pre-audit documentation before vessel cut-off to ensure treatments are valid and properly recorded.
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Build extra lead time into schedules to allow for possible on-arrival inspections or treatments.
Infrastructure and Cost Updates
Port Charges
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Fremantle Ports implemented fee increases on 1 July 2025 and has a further adjustment scheduled for 1 October 2025. These affect wharfage and infrastructure levies, directly impacting landed costs for Western Australian flows.
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Other terminals (DP World, Patrick, VICT) have also reset landside tariffs for 2025. Shippers should review storage and access terms in their contracts to ensure compliance with current charges.
Fuel Costs
The G20 VLSFO bunker index fell to around US$528/mt in late August, the lowest in 11 weeks. This presents a rare opportunity for importers and exporters to renegotiate Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) clauses and ensure falling fuel costs are reflected in their freight invoices.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment
Red Sea Disruptions
Despite temporary easing earlier this year, security incidents in July — including the sinking of two commercial vessels — have kept most major carriers on Cape of Good Hope routings. This detour extends transit times by 10–14 days and increases insurance costs. For Oceania businesses with connections to Europe or the Middle East, contingency planning remains essential.
US–China Trade Policy
The US administration has delayed the next round of tariffs on Chinese goods until 10 November 2025, reducing immediate front-loading but leaving longer-term uncertainty. Importers should model multiple tariff scenarios to understand the potential impact on sourcing, lead times, and costs.
Upcoming Calendar Risks
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Vietnam National Day: 30 August – 2 September. Factory and port closures expected.
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Malaysia: National Day (31 August) and Malaysia Day (16 September, with 15 September declared an additional public holiday). Logistics activity will be reduced.
Shippers should plan shipments strategically around these dates to avoid bottlenecks.
The Path Forward
For Australian and New Zealand supply chains, global averages tell only half the story. Ocean rates may be falling worldwide, but Oceania importers face unique challenges: elevated surcharges, tighter capacity, expanded biosecurity checks, and geopolitical risk.
The companies that succeed through this period will be those that plan proactively, diversify their carrier base, invest in compliance, and use air freight strategically.
At Seabridge Logistics, we help importers and exporters turn volatility into competitive advantage. With regional expertise, real-time market intelligence, and proactive cost management, we deliver clarity in a complex market.
Contact Seabridge today to secure space, control costs, and strengthen resilience across your Oceania supply chain.
