Australia
New Zealand Ocean Freight
Rates and capacity. Ocean freight rates have softened from the highs seen earlier in the peak season, with lower spot rates appearing on parts of the China–Australia and China–New Zealand trades.
However, the lowest available rate does not always align with a customer’s cargo-ready date, supplier cut-off or required delivery date.
Some of the softer vessel-specific rates currently available from China are tied to selected sailings and tighter booking windows. These opportunities can provide genuine savings where the cargo is ready and the timing works, but they can also offer less flexibility around cut-offs, space and schedule.
At the other end of the market, last-minute and carrier spot products can attract a premium where customers need to secure space close to departure, particularly when capacity is limited.
Seabridge View: There are lower rates available in the market and, where the timing and cut-offs work, we will certainly explore them. The important consideration is whether the rate works with the actual supply chain requirement. Our recommendation will continue to balance cost, cargo readiness, transit time, space availability and schedule reliability rather than simply selecting the lowest rate.
China–Australia and New Zealand. The timing of these softer rates also needs to be considered against the current operating environment in China.
East China has experienced two significant typhoon events in recent weeks. Typhoon Bavi disrupted Shanghai and Ningbo in July, resulting in terminal closures, vessel delays and port omissions. Typhoon Dolphin then caused further closures and disruption across Shanghai, Ningbo and the surrounding region in August.
Although port operations have resumed, the impact does not end when the weather clears. Vessels displaced during closures need to recover their rotations, while delayed cargo, vessel bunching and missed connections work their way through the wider Asian network.
This is occurring as the market moves towards the pre-Golden Week shipping period, when exporters traditionally bring cargo forward ahead of factory closures and carriers adjust capacity around the holiday period.
Recommendation: Australian and New Zealand importers with September and October cargo should review supplier readiness and required delivery dates now. Where a lower vessel-specific rate aligns with the cargo-ready date and cut-off, it may represent a good opportunity. Where timing is critical, greater weight should be placed on space certainty and schedule reliability.
Australian demand. Australian container trade remains strong. Imports reached 414,013 TEU in May, up 10.4% year-on-year, while exports reached 285,836 TEU, approximately 7% higher than May 2025.
Combined with the approaching Q4 inventory period, this provides a firm demand base for southbound services into Australia.
China–Australia capacity. Additional capacity is also entering the market. Following the introduction of the Qilin service, the Dragon / AUN service is being restructured from 21 August and will operate:
Qingdao – Ningbo – Hong Kong – Yantian – Sydney – Melbourne – Brisbane – Qingdao
The revised service will deploy seven vessels of approximately 5,500–6,700 TEU. Shanghai will be removed from this rotation but retains direct Australian coverage through other services.
The additional capacity is positive, but customers should continue to assess service options against origin, cargo-ready date, required delivery date and schedule reliability rather than freight rate alone.
Schedule Reliability & China Congestion
Schedule reliability is likely to be one of the more important considerations for Australian and New Zealand importers heading into September and October.
Global vessel schedule reliability remains below historical norms at 62.6%, with late vessels averaging more than five days behind schedule.
More importantly for the local market, the recent disruption in China is still working its way through vessel schedules.
Typhoons Bavi and Dolphin both affected major East China gateways, including Shanghai and Ningbo. Port closures, berth disruption and vessel displacement have created a backlog that carriers now need to work through as services recover their normal rotations.
The flow-on effect can extend beyond the ports directly affected. Late vessels can arrive together, miss planned berthing windows or connections, and create congestion at subsequent ports and transhipment hubs. Carriers may respond with port omissions, rotation changes or blank sailings as they work to restore schedules.
This creates the potential for a compounding effect through September. Reduced effective capacity caused by late or bunched vessels can make space appear tighter even where the underlying level of cargo demand has not materially changed.
The timing is particularly important as the schedule recovery period runs into the pre-Golden Week shipping window. Suppliers typically bring cargo forward ahead of China’s National Day holiday from 1–7 October, increasing pressure on available departures before the holiday period.
Seabridge View: We expect the effects of the recent China weather disruption to remain visible into September. The combination of schedule recovery, vessel bunching, missed connections and the pre-Golden Week cargo push could create tighter effective capacity even without a corresponding increase in underlying demand. Customers with fixed delivery requirements should build additional contingency into September and October planning.
Destination conditions in Australia and New Zealand remain comparatively stable, with limited vessel waiting time currently being experienced across the major ports. The greater near-term risk is upstream — securing space on the intended sailing and maintaining the planned schedule through Asia.
