Global Logistics Market Update – August 2026

In our August 2026 Global Logistics Market Update, we look at the main issues affecting international supply chains across Australia and New Zealand as businesses plan for September and Q4.

Lower vessel-specific rates are available on parts of the China–Australia and China–New Zealand trades. However, the lowest rate does not always align with a customer’s cargo-ready date, supplier cut-off or required delivery date.

At the same time, severe weather and port congestion across Asia are affecting vessel schedules ahead of the pre-Golden Week shipping period. Global schedule reliability deteriorated sharply in July, while the Middle East remains a key routing and capacity risk. BMSB seasons in Australia and New Zealand also commence on 1 September.

Ocean Freight Rates & Capacity

The ocean freight market remains mixed heading into September. Lower vessel-specific rates are appearing on parts of the China–Australia and China–New Zealand trades, while broader global pricing has firmed again.

Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) increased 4% in its latest weekly assessment to USD 4,526 per 40ft container, driven by higher rates on the Transpacific trade.

For Australian and New Zealand importers, the WCI is a useful indicator of broader market direction. However, it should not be viewed as a direct benchmark for Oceania pricing. Rates continue to vary by origin, carrier, sailing and equipment.

Some of the softer vessel-specific rates from China are tied to selected sailings and tighter booking windows. These can provide genuine savings where the cargo is ready and the timing works.

However, they can also offer less flexibility around cut-offs, space and schedule. At the other end of the market, last-minute carrier spot products can attract a significant premium where customers need to secure space close to departure.

Seabridge View: There are lower rates available and, where the timing and cut-offs work, we will explore them. The important consideration is whether the rate works with the actual supply chain requirement. Our recommendation will continue to balance cost, cargo readiness, transit time, space availability and schedule reliability rather than simply selecting the lowest rate.

China–Australia Services

Additional capacity has entered the China–Australia market.

Maersk’s Qilin service provides a dedicated Shanghai–Sydney–Melbourne product, with published transit times of approximately 14 days from Shanghai to Sydney and 17 days to Melbourne.

The Dragon service has also been restructured from late August. The revised rotation operates Qingdao–Ningbo–Hong Kong–Yantian–Sydney–Melbourne–Brisbane–Qingdao. Shanghai has been removed from this rotation and is served through Qilin and other Oceania services.

The additional capacity is positive. However, recent weather-related disruption has already resulted in port omissions on some Oceania services, reinforcing the need to consider schedule reliability alongside published transit times.

China–New Zealand Services

The Northern Star service remains an important Greater China–New Zealand connection.

A seasonal Northern Star blank sailing is scheduled ex Shanghai on 6 September, with affected bookings being transferred to subsequent sailings.

Weather disruption has also affected individual voyages. Maersk has announced several Shanghai omissions on Northern Star services during August because of adverse weather and the resulting schedule disruption.

For New Zealand importers, schedule and connection reliability remain key considerations as the market moves into September.

Australian Container Demand

Australian container trade remains strong. Imports reached 414,013 TEU in May, up 10.4% year-on-year. Exports reached 285,836 TEU, approximately 7% higher than May 2025.

Combined with the approaching Q4 inventory period, this provides a firm demand base for southbound services into Australia.

Asia Weather Disruption & Schedule Reliability

Severe weather has become one of the main operational risks for Asian supply chains heading into September.

Multiple tropical systems have been active across the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea this week, creating a complex weather environment across parts of East and Southeast Asia.

Heavy rainfall and flooding have affected southern China, including Guangxi, Hainan and Guangdong, while flooding and landslides have also affected parts of northern Vietnam and transport infrastructure.

Severe weather has also affected Japan’s Okinawa region and Taiwan, disrupting flights and transport as weather systems move through the region.

For ocean freight, the immediate concern is the flow-on impact across major Asian gateways. Port restrictions, vessel displacement and changing marine conditions can affect Shanghai, Ningbo and surrounding ports, with disruption continuing after local weather conditions improve.

Seabridge’s China offices are closely monitoring port operations, trucking and vessel schedules. The timing of the recovery will depend on local conditions and how quickly carriers and terminals can work through delayed vessels and cargo.

Port Congestion and Effective Capacity

The weather disruption is occurring against an already congested operating environment.

Sea-Intelligence’s latest Global Liner Performance data shows global container schedule reliability fell 6.1 percentage points in July to 56.4% — the lowest level recorded so far in 2026 and the lowest since February 2025.

The average delay for late vessel arrivals also increased to 6.06 days, the highest level since January 2024.

More than 4.3 million TEU of containership capacity is currently estimated to be waiting to berth globally, equivalent to around 12.6% of the global fleet. East Asia is driving much of the current increase.

Separately, Sea-Intelligence estimates that around 1.7 million TEU of global deep-sea vessel capacity is being absorbed by schedule delays.

These figures measure different parts of the problem. Schedule reliability shows how consistently vessels are operating to plan, while the congestion and delayed-capacity figures demonstrate how operational disruption can reduce effective vessel capacity. Together, they help explain why nominal fleet capacity does not necessarily translate into space being available where and when shippers need it.

Congestion has increased sharply at some of China’s major gateways. The number of vessels waiting at Shanghai reached 139 as at 17 August, up sharply from 24 two weeks earlier, while congestion has also increased at Ningbo and other Asian ports.

For supply chains, the impact can continue well after local weather conditions improve. Port restrictions and vessel displacement can create vessel bunching, missed berthing windows and missed transhipment connections as vessels move through the wider network. Equipment can become displaced, cargo may be rolled, and carriers may respond with port omissions, rotation changes or blank sailings as they work to restore schedules.

We are already seeing this on Oceania services. Weather-related Shanghai omissions have affected services connecting Asia with Australia and New Zealand during July and August.

September and Golden Week

The timing is particularly important because schedule recovery is now running into China’s pre-Golden Week shipping period.

Suppliers typically bring shipments forward ahead of the National Day holiday from 1–7 October, while carriers also adjust capacity around the holiday period. Earlier booking activity is already becoming more visible across Oceania trades as importers prepare for year-end demand.

For Australian and New Zealand importers, this means the immediate risk is increasingly about effective capacity and schedule reliability rather than underlying cargo demand alone. A service may technically have capacity, but that capacity may not be available on the sailing, date or routing required.

Seabridge View: The immediate issue is not any one storm or port closure. It is the cumulative effect of weather disruption on an already congested Asian network as we move towards Golden Week. Even where underlying demand has not materially changed, delayed vessels and schedule recovery can reduce the space actually available on the sailing and date required. We expect schedule reliability to remain an important consideration through September.

Recommendation: Importers with September and October shipments should review supplier readiness and required delivery dates now. Where a lower vessel-specific rate aligns with the cargo-ready date and cut-off, it may represent a good opportunity. Where timing is critical, greater weight should be placed on space certainty and schedule reliability, with additional contingency allowed for current disruption.

Middle East & Red Sea Shipping

The Middle East remains a significant risk for international supply chains, although there are signs of a cautious return to Suez routings on selected services.

Capacity and Routing

Container capacity deployed on the Far East–Indian Subcontinent/Middle East/Red Sea trade was around 14% lower year-on-year in late July, a reduction of approximately 312,000 TEU.

The reduction reflects a combination of carrier withdrawals and network changes against the backdrop of ongoing security concerns across the Gulf and Red Sea. For businesses trading with India and the Middle East, reduced capacity can increase the risk of tighter space, greater reliance on transhipment and less predictable transit times.

There are now signs of a cautious return to Red Sea and Suez routings on selected services. MSC has begun restoring Suez transits on a limited number of East–West services, while other carriers have also progressively returned selected services to the route.

This does not represent a full normalisation of Red Sea shipping. Carrier strategies continue to vary by service and individual voyage, with contingency arrangements remaining in place should security or operating conditions change.

For Australian and New Zealand shipments moving to and from Europe, the distinction remains important. Changes between Suez/Red Sea and Cape of Good Hope routings can materially affect transit time, so the actual routing should continue to be confirmed at the time of booking.

Recommendation: For time-sensitive Europe and Middle East shipments, confirm the expected routing and current transit time at the time of booking rather than relying solely on published schedules.

Strait of Hormuz

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, with security and operating conditions continuing to affect regional shipping and logistics.

The impact extends beyond shipments moving directly through the Middle East. Disruption to shipping and energy flows can affect vessel deployment, fuel markets and transport costs across international supply chains.

Seabridge View: The Middle East remains both a routing and cost risk. The gradual return of some services through Suez is positive, but conditions remain fluid. Customers should continue to review routing and transit times on a shipment-by-shipment basis rather than assuming published schedules will reflect the final operating route.

Air Freight Market

Global air cargo demand remains strong. Demand increased 8.5% year-on-year in June, while available cargo capacity increased by 4.4%.

Asia-Pacific demand increased 7.9% year-on-year over the same period, while capacity grew 4.3%.

Technology-related supply chains, including electronics and semiconductor cargo, continue to support air freight activity across Asia.

Severe weather is now creating another operational consideration. Flight and transport disruption across parts of East Asia can affect passenger belly capacity, regional connections and uplift availability even where the cargo’s origin or destination is not directly affected by a storm.

Middle East disruption is another factor affecting traditional Asia–Europe routings. Capacity and connections can therefore vary considerably by origin, carrier, routing and day of uplift.

For Australia and New Zealand, capacity remains available across many major Asian gateways. However, customers should continue to plan ahead for time-sensitive shipments.

Seabridge View: Air freight remains a viable option for urgent and high-value inventory, but it should not automatically be viewed as an unaffected alternative to ocean delays. Weather and Middle East disruption can also affect aviation capacity and connections. Customers with fixed delivery dates should engage early so routing and uplift options can be assessed before capacity tightens.

Australia – Compliance & Market Developments

Australia’s BMSB Season — 1 September

Australia’s 2026–27 Brown Marmorated Stink Bug seasonal measures apply to targeted goods manufactured in or shipped from target-risk countries and shipped between 1 September 2026 and 30 April 2027 inclusive.

The shipped-on-board date shown on the Ocean Bill of Lading is used to determine when goods have been shipped for the purpose of the seasonal measures.

There are important changes for 2026–27. The previous BMSB Safeguarding Scheme and Rolled Goods Policy have been removed, and a new onshore Ethyl Formate treatment option has been introduced.

Target high-risk goods require mandatory treatment. Importers also need to pay particular attention to breakbulk, flat-rack, open-top and other non-standard cargo, where offshore treatment requirements may apply.

Failure to meet the applicable treatment and loading requirements can result in delays, additional handling and storage costs, denied discharge or cargo being directed for export.

Check before shipping: Confirm the commodity, country of manufacture and shipment, treatment requirements and approved treatment provider before cargo is dispatched. Seabridge can review upcoming shipments and confirm the appropriate treatment and clearance pathway before departure.

Domestic Transport Costs

Temporary Federal fuel excise relief ended on 2 August, increasing the underlying diesel cost for Australian road transport from 3 August.

Fuel surcharges on container transport, linehaul and distribution services therefore remain an area to watch. The timing and extent of increases will vary between operators.

ACFS Port Logistics

ACFS Port Logistics Australia remains in administration and receivership, with the business continuing to trade while the administration and recapitalisation process progresses.

ACFS has advised that initial operational issues following the appointment were resolved. ACFS and the Receivers and Managers have subsequently advised that transport and depot operations continue, with customer access to FCL containers maintained.

Seabridge will continue to monitor developments and any potential impact on container movements through ACFS facilities.

New Zealand – BMSB, Inter-island Freight & Customs

New Zealand’s BMSB Season — 1 September

New Zealand’s BMSB risk season also commences on 1 September.

New Zealand targets specified vehicles, machinery and parts from BMSB risk countries, with additional requirements applying to sea containers exported from Italy. Importers should confirm treatment, cleanliness and certification requirements before cargo leaves origin.

There are important differences between the Australian and New Zealand requirements. Importers moving the same goods into both countries should therefore ensure the shipment meets the requirements of each destination rather than assuming one treatment pathway applies to both.

Inter-island Capacity

Interislander is currently operating a temporary one-ship timetable while Kaiārahi and Kaitaki complete scheduled maintenance. The reduced timetable is expected to continue until mid-September.

Four sailings are currently scheduled each day across Cook Strait. Businesses relying on North–South Island connections should allow additional contingency in domestic lead times and confirm capacity for time-sensitive shipments.

Customs Regulation Changes — 10 September

Amendments to New Zealand’s Customs and Excise Regulations take effect from 10 September 2026.

The changes are mainly administrative and modernise existing requirements, including clearer provisions for electronic, cloud-based and offshore business records.

They also update certain excise processes and provisions relating to the New Zealand–China and New Zealand–Hong Kong trade arrangements.

Businesses operating under Customs-controlled processes should review whether the changes affect their procedures or record-keeping arrangements.

Key Supply Chain Dates

What Should Supply Chain Teams Be Doing?

1. Review September and Q4 inventory requirements now. Work backwards from required delivery dates and secure space earlier for critical shipments.
2. Consider the complete shipment outcome, not simply the lowest rate. Vessel-specific opportunities can offer genuine savings, but only where supplier readiness, cut-offs and transit times align.
3. Build additional contingency into Asian lead times. Congestion and deteriorating schedule reliability are already affecting the network, and further weather disruption could add to current delays.
4. Plan New Zealand departures carefully. The scheduled Northern Star blank sailing in early September adds another capacity consideration for China–New Zealand shipments.
5. Review Europe and Middle East routings shipment by shipment. Some services are returning to Suez, but routing remains fluid and transit times can vary materially by carrier and service.
6. Prepare for BMSB before cargo is ready. Confirm treatment requirements with suppliers before shipment, particularly for high-risk and non-standard cargo.
7. Identify critical inventory that may require air freight. Air remains a useful recovery option, but weather can also affect regional uplift and connections.

Seabridge Outlook

The freight market is more balanced than it was during the rapid rate increases seen earlier in the year, but the operating environment remains challenging.

Lower rates are available on parts of the China–Australia and China–New Zealand market and can provide worthwhile savings where the timing works. However, deteriorating schedule reliability and current disruption across Asia reinforce the importance of assessing the complete shipment outcome rather than the headline freight rate alone.

September is likely to be shaped by schedule recovery across Asia, the pre-Golden Week shipping period and the commencement of BMSB requirements in Australia and New Zealand. In the Middle East, the cautious return of selected services through Suez is encouraging, but routing and capacity remain subject to change.

Our advice remains straightforward: plan early, maintain flexibility and assess each freight decision against the required supply chain outcome — not simply the headline rate.

For advice on upcoming shipments, routing options, air freight alternatives or BMSB requirements, please contact your local Seabridge team.

This update is based on Seabridge market intelligence, carrier updates, industry data and relevant Australian and New Zealand government advisories. Key market data sources include Drewry, Sea-Intelligence, Linerlytica, IATA and carrier market updates.

General information only. Market conditions, freight rates, capacity, routing and regulatory requirements can change at short notice. Contact Seabridge for current rates and shipment-specific guidance.