Australia
New Zealand Summary
Asia–Oceania lanes remain relatively firm heading into late October, supported by seasonal demand and early Chinese New Year planning, while global ocean benchmarks have been soft. China and Southeast Asia continue to experience congestion and weather-related delays, Australian equipment remains tight, and New Zealand’s Labour Weekend rail works will slow flows around Auckland/Tauranga. Despite ceasefire headlines, carriers are not expected to resume Red Sea transits in the near term.
- COSCO’s rate restoration on Asia–Australia lanes applies from 1 November 2025.
- Global schedule reliability is stable near the mid-60% range; Oceania performance remains materially lower.
- Drewry’s composite index ticked up to US$1,687/FEU in the week of 16 October.
- Bunker prices have dropped to multi-year lows, easing some carrier cost pressure.
- DAFF has removed Spain from Australia’s LSD-free list, affecting specialised imports only.
Ocean Freight Update
COSCO rate restoration
COSCO Shipping Lines will apply a rate restoration of US$500 per TEU (US$1,000 per FEU) to southbound shipments from North and Southeast Asia to Australia from 1 November 2025. The adjustment is on top of prevailing market rates and subject to standard accessorials.
China and Southeast Asia operations
- Shanghai and Shenzhen remain congested following Golden Week and recent typhoon impacts; average vessel delays of about five days are common.
- Monsoon conditions continue to disrupt feeder and connection schedules in Malaysia and Singapore, with extended transhipment dwell times at Singapore.
- Carriers are using blank sailings and selective port omissions to recover schedules; build additional buffer into planning.
Australia and New Zealand
- Reefer equipment and 20-foot container availability remain tight. Secure equipment early or consider 40-foot/LCL alternatives.
- Australian port reliability continues to trail global averages; typical delays are four to eight days depending on port and service.
- KiwiRail will undertake Labour Weekend works from 24–27 October around Auckland/Tauranga. Road bridging will operate where needed but slower than rail.
Regional service notes
- ANL has announced an upgrade of its WPAC service frequency to fortnightly from late October/November, supporting New Zealand–Australia–Pacific connectivity.
- Some carriers have trialled or scheduled ad-hoc direct calls into Townsville from East China in selected windows; transit times in the low-20-day range are indicative and subject to availability.
Global reliability and market indicators
Schedule reliability
- Global schedule reliability was 65.3% in August 2025 and has remained broadly stable in the 65–68% band since May.
- Average delay for late arrivals was 4.8 days in August.
Sea-Intelligence: Global Liner Performance (Aug data, Oct release)
Rates and fuel snapshot
| Indicator | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Drewry World Container Index (composite) | US$1,687/FEU (week of 16 Oct) | Up 2% week on week |
| G20 VLSFO (global bunker) | ~US$490/mt (mid-Oct) | Lowest since 2021; easing fuel costs |
Drewry World Container Index | Ship & Bunker: G20 VLSFO index
Air Freight Market Trends & Risks
Air cargo demand continues to outperform expectations in 2025, especially across Asia–Pacific, but capacity constraints, regulatory shifts, and cost pressures mean the airfreight space is far from easy. Here’s what’s driving the market and what importers/exporters in Australia and New Zealand should watch.
- Continued demand growth: In August 2025, global air cargo demand (CTK) rose 4.1% year-over-year, while capacity (ACTK) increased by 3.7%. (IATA) In the Asia–Pacific region, demand growth was significantly stronger — approximately 9.8% year-over-year, with capacity up 6.9% — putting pressure on premium lanes in the region.
- Cost headwinds mounting: Airlines face substantial cost pressures in 2025 from maintenance delays, spare parts supply constraints, aircraft downtime, and rising regulatory compliance costs. IATA estimates these stresses will add over USD 11 billion in industry expenses this year. (Reuters / IATA) As these pressures mount, airlines may push surcharges or mix pricing upward, especially for time-critical shipments.
- Australia: LDR certification changes ahead: From 12 January 2026, tighter Load Distribution & Restraint (LDR) certification rules in Australia will take effect, likely requiring more stringent cargo restraint or loading standards. (Qantas Freight)
- Expanded direct freighter capacity: Qantas has launched a twice-weekly A330 freighter service between Sydney and Shanghai, boosting direct uplift options. (CAAS International)
Implications for Australian & NZ shippers:
- Lock in airfreight capacity early, especially for high-value or time-sensitive shipments. Peak windows will see surcharges and scarcity.
- Monitor surcharge and fuel recovery announcements closely — airlines may pass on incremental cost burdens in short windows.
- Ensure your freight forwarders and agents are LDR-compliant ahead of January 2026, to avoid freight rejections or handling delays.
- Where available, prioritise direct freighter options (e.g. Qantas A330) for greater reliability and fewer handling legs.
Red Sea and Europe routing outlook
Despite the Israel–Gaza ceasefire, experts advise that a return to Red Sea/Suez routing is unlikely in the near term. Security guarantees and sustained stability will be required, and redeploying services back to Suez is a multi-month operational process. A cautious baseline assumes Cape of Good Hope routing persists into early 2026, with any eventual switch likely to create temporary port congestion as schedules realign.
Trade, policy and biosecurity watch
- DAFF Industry Advice 343-2025 confirms Spain is no longer recognised as LSD-free (without vaccination). This affects imports of bovine tissues/fluids, reproductive materials and veterinary therapeutics from Spain. Goods already in transit are assessed case by case.
- Australia–UAE CEPA and domestic critical-minerals policy developments continue to evolve; monitor for downstream effects on sourcing, intermediate inputs and demand patterns.
Risk radar — late October
- Weather systems in South China and the South China Sea may intermittently affect feeder schedules and factory output.
- Further blanked sailings on Asia–Oceania routes are likely through November as carriers balance capacity.
- European port labour actions (Rotterdam/Antwerp/Zeebrugge) remain an intermittent risk to schedules and connections.
- New Zealand Labour Weekend rail works (24–27 Oct) will slow inland movements around Auckland/Tauranga.
Seabridge recommendations
| Focus area | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Bookings | Secure ocean space 2–3 weeks ahead for November sailings; consider alternative ports if lead times are tight. |
| Transit planning | Add 5–7 days buffer on Asia origins; verify transhipment ports and potential omissions. |
| Equipment | Pre-book reefers and 20-foot units; keep 40-foot/LCL options as contingency. |
| Air freight | Lock capacity early for peak weeks; monitor surcharge notices; ensure LDR compliance ahead of 12 January 2026. |
| Cost forecasting | Factor COSCO’s 1 November rate restoration and bunker movements; review contract vs spot exposure. |
| Visibility | Use Hive for live ETAs and exception alerts; review routings weekly during disruption windows. |
Outlook
Asia–Oceania rates are likely to remain firm through late November before gradual seasonal easing. With Red Sea routing still off the table, schedule recovery will be uneven and dependent on weather, port labour conditions and carrier capacity management. Early booking, flexible routing and close monitoring remain the best tools to protect lead times and landed costs.
Sources: Sea-Intelligence (Oct 2025 release of Aug data); Drewry World Container Index (16 Oct 2025); Ship & Bunker G20 VLSFO (Oct 2025); IATA (Aug 2025 air cargo); DAFF 343-2025; KiwiRail Labour Weekend works; ANL service update (Oct 2025).
