Australia
New Zealand Global supply chains are entering a new phase, where cost, risk and reliability are shifting at the same time.
April has opened with relatively stable base freight rates across most trade lanes. That stability, however, is creating a false sense of normality.
Fuel, surcharges and network disruption are now driving outcomes more than base freight rates. Across Australia and New Zealand supply chains, cost, routing and service reliability are becoming more variable and less predictable.
At a glance
- Base freight rates remain relatively stable, but total landed costs are increasing
- Fuel and surcharges are now the primary drivers of pricing across ocean, air and domestic transport
- Schedule reliability remains below historical norms, impacting planning assumptions
- Preferred capacity is tightening across Asia–Oceania despite available headline capacity
- Airfreight networks are experiencing the most operational pressure
Seabridge Point of View
Stable headline rates are masking a more complex market beneath the surface. This is no longer a traditional freight market. Cost and risk are now the primary drivers of supply chain performance. For Australian and New Zealand businesses, the focus should be on total cost visibility, realistic lead times and maintaining flexibility across both international and domestic logistics.
What’s Changed This Month
- Fuel-driven surcharges have accelerated across ocean freight and domestic cartage in Australia and New Zealand
- Carrier behaviour is shifting, with capacity being redeployed across key global trades rather than simply added
- Airfreight networks are under increasing pressure due to rerouting, airspace restrictions and fuel costs
- Congestion and delays are building across key transhipment hubs, impacting schedule reliability
Global Container Shipping
Container shipping markets into Australia and New Zealand remain relatively stable on headline rates. This is being supported by increased capacity on Asia–Oceania trades and a more balanced demand environment following earlier volatility.
However, service reliability remains inconsistent. Global schedule reliability continues to sit well below long-term averages, and preferred sailings are filling earlier across key trade lanes.
For ANZ importers and exporters, this means that while rates may appear stable, service outcomes remain variable.
- Stable pricing does not translate to consistent service
- Transit variability should be expected and planned for
- Earlier booking is increasingly required to secure preferred sailings and equipment
Cost Pressure: Fuel and Surcharges
Fuel is now influencing cost across the entire supply chain, not just international freight.
Ocean carriers continue to introduce fuel, war-risk and contingency surcharges across multiple trade lanes. These are often moving faster than contract freight rates and, in some cases, are approaching or exceeding base freight levels.
This pressure is also flowing through to domestic logistics. Across Australia and New Zealand, fuel-driven surcharges on container cartage, linehaul and last-mile delivery are increasing, in some cases on a weekly basis.
The result is that total landed cost is becoming more volatile and less predictable, even where base freight pricing remains unchanged.
- Total landed cost is now the key metric for decision making
- Surcharges are increasingly driving pricing outcomes
- Domestic transport costs are becoming a more significant variable in supply chains
Air Freight Market
Airfreight networks are under increasing operational pressure across global supply chains.
Capacity is being constrained by rerouting around restricted airspace, disruption across major hub carriers and rising fuel costs. While capacity exists, it is not always available on preferred routes or within required transit windows.
This is particularly relevant for Australian and New Zealand businesses, where many airfreight movements rely on global hub connectivity through Asia and the Middle East.
- Capacity availability is uneven across routes and timeframes
- Pricing is responding quickly to disruption and fuel cost changes
- Additional buffer should be built into planning for time-sensitive cargo
On-the-Ground Conditions
Operational conditions remain inconsistent across key parts of the global logistics network.
Transhipment hubs continue to experience congestion and timing variability, which is flowing through to transit performance on Australia and New Zealand trade lanes.
- Transhipment delays continue through hubs such as Singapore
- Congestion is building across parts of Asia and India
- Equipment availability remains tight on selected trade lanes
- Reefer capacity is under pressure in some export markets
For example, congestion at key ports such as Nhava Sheva is impacting regional flows and contributing to schedule disruption.
Middle East and Global Network Impact
Developments in the Middle East continue to influence global logistics networks.
Carriers have withdrawn capacity, redeployed vessels and introduced new surcharge structures in response to evolving conditions. This is also contributing to congestion across surrounding regions and altering traditional routing patterns.
The Strait of Hormuz is increasingly functioning as a more controlled corridor, with implications for global energy markets and shipping flows.
This is not a short-term disruption. It represents a structural shift in how risk and cost are being priced across global shipping networks.
What We’re Advising Customers
- Book earlier to secure preferred sailings, equipment and airfreight capacity
- Focus on total landed cost rather than base freight rates alone
- Build additional buffer into supply chain planning to manage variability
- Maintain flexibility in routing and service selection
- Ensure documentation accuracy to avoid delays where routing changes occur
Waiting for conditions to stabilise is no longer a strategy. Planning earlier and building flexibility into supply chains is now essential.
Forward Look — Q2 2026
- Fuel and energy markets are expected to remain volatile
- Surcharges are likely to remain elevated across ocean and domestic transport
- Schedule reliability is expected to remain below historical norms
- Airfreight capacity will likely remain tight on key global routes
Contact Seabridge
If you would like to discuss how these developments may impact your supply chain, please contact your Seabridge representative.
Seabridge continues to monitor global conditions and provide practical, real-time guidance across Australia and New Zealand.
