Market Update - March 2026

Global logistics markets entered March in relatively stable conditions following the Lunar New Year period. Container freight rates had moderated from earlier volatility, air cargo demand remained firm, and supply chains across several major trade lanes were operating under more balanced conditions.

That operating backdrop has since shifted. Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, rising bunker fuel prices and the introduction of emergency carrier surcharges are now influencing logistics costs and network behaviour across both ocean and air freight markets.

For Australian and New Zealand importers and exporters, the implications extend beyond the affected region itself. Global supply chains remain highly interconnected, and disruption affecting aviation hubs, maritime corridors and energy markets can influence routing decisions, carrier deployment, transit reliability and total landed cost.

Executive Summary

• Global container markets remain relatively balanced, but carrier cost pressure is increasing.
• Emergency fuel surcharges are being introduced by major ocean carriers as bunker costs rise.
• Air cargo demand remains firm across Asia-Pacific, but routing assumptions via Gulf hubs now require closer review.
• Fuel price volatility is flowing into domestic transport costs across Australia and New Zealand.
• Total landed logistics cost is becoming more sensitive to surcharges, routing changes and schedule variability.

Global Container Shipping Market

Global container shipping markets remain relatively balanced following the Lunar New Year period. Freight rates have stabilised across several major trades as demand growth moderates and carriers continue to manage capacity through selective blank sailings and network adjustments.

Drewry’s latest World Container Index remains around US$1,958 per 40ft, indicating that global freight pricing has not returned to the extreme volatility seen in previous disruption periods. At the same time, Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index has strengthened, showing that pricing pressure is not uniform across all lanes and that regional network conditions are beginning to tighten in some areas.

Although freight demand remains steady across Asia-Pacific trades, global fleet expansion continues to place downward pressure on base freight rates over the medium term. This means carriers are increasingly relying on capacity discipline and surcharge mechanisms to recover cost rather than broad base-rate increases alone.

Implications for Australian and New Zealand supply chains

• Base freight rates remain relatively stable, but all-in freight cost may rise through surcharges and operational adjustments.
• Transshipment hubs across Asia continue to play an important role in connecting Oceania trade lanes to global markets.
• Schedule variability remains possible where carrier deployment decisions change quickly.

Ocean Carrier Emergency Surcharges

Several global shipping lines have introduced emergency surcharges as bunker fuel prices rise sharply.

Hapag-Lloyd has implemented an Emergency Fuel Surcharge across multiple trades, citing bunker costs that exceed levels recoverable through existing fuel adjustment mechanisms. Indicative surcharge levels on long-haul front-haul trades include approximately US$160 per TEU for dry cargo and approximately US$225 per TEU for refrigerated cargo.

Maersk has also introduced a temporary Emergency Bunker Surcharge globally from 25 March 2026, reflecting the carrier view that fuel remains available globally but is unevenly distributed and more expensive to source and position.

Emergency surcharges typically appear when bunker prices rise rapidly and standard bunker adjustment factors are no longer sufficient to recover operating costs. In practical terms, this means carriers may increase pricing even where base freight contracts appear unchanged.

Implications for shippers

• Freight cost increases may be driven by surcharge mechanisms rather than base rate changes.
• Carrier quotations and invoices should be reviewed for additional fuel, emergency and contingency-related charges.
• Comparing freight options now requires attention to total landed cost, not just contracted base freight.

Air Freight Market Conditions

Global air cargo demand remains firm in early 2026. According to IATA, worldwide air cargo demand rose 5.6% year on year in January, with Asia-Pacific carriers recording the strongest regional growth at 7.8%.

Under normal conditions, that would point to a firm but manageable market. March conditions are more complex. Many international airfreight routings between Asia, Europe, the UK, India, Africa and the Middle East rely on Gulf hubs such as Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi. Where airspace restrictions occur, airlines may be required to reroute flights, extend flying time or reduce payload efficiency.

This is directly relevant for Australian and New Zealand businesses because many time-sensitive and high-value cargo flows rely on these global hub connections, even where the cargo does not originate in the Middle East.

Planning considerations for ANZ air freight

• Review routing assumptions carefully where cargo may transit Gulf hubs.
• Allow additional buffer time for urgent, temperature-controlled or operationally critical cargo.
• Expect capacity and pricing on affected corridors to tighten more quickly than in the broader airfreight market if disruption persists.

Fuel and Bunker Cost Trends

Fuel pricing has re-emerged as a major variable in global logistics cost structures.

Marine fuel benchmarks show that very low sulphur fuel oil pricing in major bunkering hubs such as Singapore and Fujairah has risen materially during March. This matters because shipping lines typically recover higher bunker costs through bunker adjustment factors or emergency fuel surcharges.

The same pattern is visible across aviation and domestic transport. As a result, energy market volatility is now influencing multiple parts of the logistics chain simultaneously.

Australia and New Zealand Fuel Surcharge Pressure

Fuel price volatility is also flowing into domestic logistics costs across Australia and New Zealand.

In Australia, container transport industry guidance notes that diesel terminal gate prices rose by around 29% to 31% in a single week across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, prompting recommendations that transport operators review fuel surcharge mechanisms at least weekly and, in some cases, daily.

In New Zealand, higher fuel costs are also being passed through. Local operators and industry leaders have warned that fuel price increases will flow directly into freight, transport and related logistics costs.

For many businesses, this means cost increases may now appear across several layers of the supply chain at once, including:

• container transport and port cartage
• domestic trucking and linehaul services
• courier and last-mile delivery networks
• international air and ocean fuel-related surcharges

Implications for ANZ supply chains

March is not only a shipping disruption story. It is also a cross-modal fuel surcharge story. Procurement and supply chain teams should review total logistics cost across both international and domestic transport rather than focusing solely on ocean or air freight rates.

Middle East Developments and Global Network Impact

Escalating tensions in the Middle East have introduced additional operational risk across parts of the region. Strategic corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz remain critical to global energy and maritime flows, and airline networks in the Gulf region continue to play a major role in connecting global cargo movements.

For Australian and New Zealand supply chains, the most likely implications are not widespread service shutdowns, but routing adjustments, cost pressure and knock-on effects across global network deployment.

Because many ANZ shipments rely on transshipment hubs across Asia and the Middle East, disruption in one region can influence transit times and equipment availability even where cargo does not physically move through the affected area.

Customs Brokerage and Compliance Considerations

Where routing becomes less predictable, customs and compliance discipline becomes more important, not less.

For importers and exporters, documentation accuracy is critical when carriers adjust routing, transshipment points or destination handling plans at short notice. Ambiguity around consignee details, tariff classification, country of origin, dangerous goods status, reefer settings or permit requirements can become more costly when service continuity is already under pressure.

Businesses may also wish to review cargo insurance and war-risk exposure where shipments could be affected by evolving geopolitical conditions.

Commercial and Supply Chain Risk Considerations

Current market conditions introduce several commercial considerations for Australian and New Zealand businesses.

First, freight cost volatility is increasing. While base freight rates remain relatively stable, emergency surcharges and fuel-related levies can move more quickly than contractual freight pricing.

Second, routing variability may influence transit times. Where carriers adjust vessel deployment or airlines reroute flights around restricted airspace, supply chains relying on tight production or inventory cycles may need to allow additional buffer time.

Third, fuel-related surcharges across both international freight and domestic transport may materially influence total landed cost. For many businesses, inland transport costs can now move independently of international freight pricing.

Finally, businesses with exposure to Europe, India, the Middle East or time-sensitive reefer and airfreight cargo should continue monitoring carrier advisories and routing developments closely.

Forward Look — April

• Further movement in bunker fuel and diesel prices
• Carrier deployment adjustments across global shipping networks
• Airfreight routing changes through major international hubs
• Geopolitical developments affecting maritime and aviation corridors

While global freight demand remains broadly stable, operational resilience, route flexibility and cost visibility are likely to remain key priorities for Australian and New Zealand businesses moving into the second quarter.

Contact Seabridge

If you would like to discuss how current market developments may affect your shipments, routing options or landed-cost exposure, please contact your local Seabridge representative.

Our team continues to monitor carrier advisories, fuel markets and global routing developments closely through our international partner network to provide timely operational guidance across Australia and New Zealand.