Australia
New Zealand Summary
The global logistics landscape remains volatile, with fluctuating freight rates, shifting alliances, and ongoing Red Sea concerns affecting global supply chains. While freight rates have softened, they remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, port congestion in Australia and New Zealand has eased, yet supply chain risks persist due to geopolitical tensions and evolving trade policies. The air freight market continues to experience strong demand, particularly across the Asia-Pacific region, driven by e-commerce growth and increased industrial activity. Schedule reliability remains below pre-pandemic levels, making proactive freight planning essential for businesses seeking to maintain stable supply chains. This report provides a detailed analysis of key market trends, offering insights and strategic recommendations for Australian and New Zealand businesses navigating international trade.
Ocean Freight Update
Rates & Capacity
The latest Drewry World Container Index (WCI) reports a 5% decline, with average rates now at USD 3,095 per 40ft container. While this brings some relief for shippers, rates remain substantially above pre-pandemic levels, continuing to apply cost pressure across global supply chains.
New vessel deliveries, minimal idle tonnage, and alliance adjustments have boosted overall capacity. Rates could face downward pressure if advanced economies experience further demand slowdowns.
Seasonal demand and reefer container shortages highlight the need for early reservation of refrigerated containers, especially as exporters respond to shifting consumer demands for fresh/chilled goods.
Schedule Reliability
According to Sea-Intelligence, global schedule reliability remained between 50–55% throughout 2024, well below pre-pandemic levels. While some carriers have improved operational efficiency, continued disruptions—including port congestion, weather delays, and changing shipping routes—are preventing a full recovery.
Average vessel delays remain above 4.5 days, impacting supply chain predictability.
Seabridge is closely monitoring vessel schedule performance and advising clients on proactive freight planning.
Red Sea Crisis & Supply Chain Disruptions
Despite a temporary Gaza ceasefire and a decline in attacks on non-Israeli vessels, shipping lines remain cautious about resuming Red Sea transits. Clarksons Research reports no significant return to the Suez Canal, with most carriers continuing reroutes via the Cape of Good Hope, extending global shipping demand by 2.5%.
Key Impacts:
✔ Extended transit times – Rerouting adds 12–14 days to shipment schedules.
✔ Freight cost volatility – Rate fluctuations continue as demand shifts.
✔ Higher insurance premiums – Red Sea-related war risk surcharges remain 250% higher than pre-crisis levels.
✔ Port congestion risks – Increased congestion at key transhipment hubs impacts container availability.
Seabridge continues to monitor developments closely and is offering tailored solutions to mitigate disruptions, including alternative routing and inventory management strategies.
Air Freight Market
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports that global air cargo demand surged by 8.2% year-over-year in November 2024, marking 16 consecutive months of growth. The Asia-Pacific region outperformed, posting a 13.2% increase in demand, driven by:
✔ Rising e-commerce volumes.
✔ Strong manufacturing output.
✔ Increased ocean-to-air modal shifts due to Red Sea disruptions.
Key Market Trends
✔ Capacity increased by 4.6%, improving space availability for shippers.
✔ Industry-wide cargo load factor rose to 49.0%, indicating higher aircraft utilisation.
✔ Air freight rates are fluctuating, reflecting peak season trends and capacity shifts.
Asia-Pacific Market Performance:
• China, Japan, and South Korea are seeing strong export demand, particularly in electronics, automotive, and pharmaceuticals.
• Major carriers, including Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific, are expanding cargo services.
Outlook & Recommendations:
Shippers should plan ahead to secure capacity and competitive rates, especially for time-critical, high-value, or perishable cargo.
Bunker Price Decline
The bunker fuel prices G20-VLSFO Index has fallen to USD 593.50 per metric tonne, its lowest point since early January.
Port-specific declines include:
• Singapore: Down USD 10.50/mt to USD 573.50/mt.
• Rotterdam: Down USD 6/mt to USD 541/mt.
• Fujairah: Down USD 11/mt to USD 569/mt.
• Houston: Down USD 7.50/mt to USD 555.50/mt.
Analysts forecast lower bunker costs in 2025, though fuel regulation changes in the EU could impact long-term pricing.
Trade Outlook
World Trade Growth Revised Down for 2025–26
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the January 2025 update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, which was originally released in October 2024. In this update, key revisions were made to global trade growth forecasts, particularly for advanced economies. Figure 1 illustrates the growth figures for 2020–2024, along with the revised projections for 2025–2026 and the adjustments made relative to the October 2024 report.
The IMF now projects that global trade growth will be 3.2% in 2025, rising slightly to 3.3% in 2026. However, these figures have been revised downward from previous estimates. For advanced economies, trade growth is forecast to be as low as 2.1% in 2025—revised down by 0.5 percentage points—with a 2026 projection of 2.5%, revised down by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, while the overall global trade and advanced economies are expected to see modest improvements in 2026, trade growth for emerging economies is projected to trend downward, with a 2025 projection of 5.0% and a 2026 projection of 4.6% (both revised upward).
A key concern is that growth from Asia into North America and Europe accounted for a significant portion of container growth in 2024, so a downward revision in trade growth for 2025 and 2026 is not positive news for shippers. Additionally, China’s economic output has slowed from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.8% in 2024 and is projected to decline further to 4.5% by 2026. Furthermore, major advanced economies such as the United States are also forecast to see a sharp slowdown in economic growth—from 2.7% in 2025 to 2.1% in 2026—adding to the overall cautious outlook.
Biosecurity Update
Foot-and-Mouth Disease – Germany
Recent detections of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) in parts of Germany have prompted the Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry to tighten import controls on goods originating in or containing materials from Germany. Affected products include meat, dairy, pet foods, veterinary therapeutics, animal feed, and reproductive materials. Importers should ensure that all shipments include accurate, up-to-date health certificates and detailed origin documentation. Even minor discrepancies can trigger prolonged inspections, clearance delays, or re-export.
Recommendations:
Engage with your customs broker early to ensure full compliance with FMD guidelines. Revisit suppliers and product formulations if goods contain any German-sourced animal derivatives.
Foreign Exchange
The Australian and New Zealand dollars have experienced notable fluctuations, affecting trade costs:
• AUD/USD closed at 0.6343, fluctuating between 0.6096 and 0.6343.
• NZD/USD closed at 0.5709, with a monthly range of 0.5525 to 0.5720.
Conclusion
While freight rates are on a downward trajectory and schedule reliability has seen modest improvements, the global logistics environment remains dynamic, shaped by shifting carrier alliances, evolving trade forecasts, and stricter biosecurity measures. For Australian and New Zealand businesses, the key to maintaining operational resilience lies in proactive scheduling, early capacity booking, and rigorous compliance with updated environmental and biosecurity regulations. By staying agile and informed, shippers can effectively manage cost pressures and ensure timely deliveries in an ever-changing market landscape.
Sources
• Drewry’s World Container Index Weekly Update
• IATA Press Release (29 January 2025)
• Sea-Intelligence – 2024 Schedule Reliability
• Sea-Intelligence – World Trade Growth Revised Down for 2025–26
• Ship & Bunker – Bunker Prices Update
• Australian Department of Agriculture – FMD Guidance for Germany
Disclaimer:
This update consolidates data from Drewry, IATA, Sea-Intelligence, Ship & Bunker, and the Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. All information is current at the time of writing but may change without notice. Seabridge disclaims liability for decisions made based on these insights and recommends further consultation with logistics professionals to discuss your individual circumstances.
