Australia
New Zealand Overview
Global freight markets are showing the first signs of an early peak season, with tightening capacity, increasing freight rates and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty influencing both ocean and air freight supply chains.
While market conditions remain significantly more stable than those experienced during the COVID period, carriers continue to actively manage capacity through blank sailings and equipment controls. Combined with strengthening demand from Asia, this is creating upward pressure on rates across several trade lanes into Australia and New Zealand.
For importers and exporters, the key message is simple: planning ahead will become increasingly important as we move through June and into the traditionally busier third quarter.
Key Takeaways
- Capacity from China into Australia and New Zealand continues to tighten as carriers reduce available space through blank sailings.
- Freight rates have increased across most major China origins and further upward pressure remains possible through July.
- Port operations remain stable, however schedule changes and rolled cargo are becoming more common.
- Air freight demand remains healthy, although fuel costs and geopolitical uncertainty continue to influence pricing.
- Australian domestic transport costs may face upward pressure following the scheduled expiry of the temporary fuel excise reduction from 1 July.
- Businesses with critical inventory requirements should consider booking earlier and maintaining additional supply chain flexibility.
Ocean Freight Market
The ocean freight market has become noticeably firmer throughout May and early June.
Across our China network, we are seeing stronger demand, tighter vessel space and increasing carrier discipline around capacity management. Several carriers have implemented blank sailings across June services, helping support freight rates and improve vessel utilisation.
Current market indications place freight levels from China to Australia’s East Coast generally between USD 3,400 and USD 3,950 per 40HQ, depending on origin, carrier and routing. Freight levels into New Zealand have remained more stable, generally ranging between USD 2,950 and USD 3,450 per 40HQ.
Whilst cargo continues to move well, customers should expect reduced flexibility around bookings and shorter rate validity periods than earlier in the year.
Ocean Freight Rate Outlook
Freight rates have strengthened throughout May and early June, driven by tighter capacity, stronger demand and carrier capacity management initiatives.
Current market conditions suggest rates will remain firm through June and July, with upward pressure likely to persist while capacity remains constrained. Further increases cannot be ruled out should demand continue to strengthen or additional capacity be withdrawn from the market.
Customers with planned shipments during the third quarter should consider securing space early to minimise exposure to future rate movements and capacity constraints.
What We’re Seeing in China
Our teams across China continue to report stable port operations, however available capacity is tightening across several key export locations.
North China
Qingdao and Tianjin continue to experience equipment shortages and limited vessel space, with carriers actively managing utilisation through blank sailings. Freight levels to Australia’s East Coast remain around USD 3,500 per 40HQ, with capacity expected to remain tight through the second half of June.
Shanghai
Terminal operations remain stable. However, multiple services have announced blank sailings through June, reducing available capacity and contributing to upward pressure on freight rates. Freight levels have increased to approximately USD 3,400 per 40HQ to Australia’s East Coast, whilst rates to New Zealand remain relatively stable.
Ningbo
Port operations remain smooth, however both vessel space and equipment availability are becoming increasingly constrained. Freight levels remain firm and export demand continues to strengthen.
South China
Shenzhen, Xiamen and Fuzhou continue to operate normally from a terminal perspective, however several sailings have already been heavily booked through the first half of June. Equipment shortages remain isolated to certain carriers, while freight levels continue to strengthen.
Overall, we are not seeing widespread congestion. The challenge is increasingly one of capacity and predictability rather than port performance.
Schedule Reliability and Transit Times
One of the biggest challenges facing importers at present is not congestion, but predictability.
Whilst most ports continue to operate normally, carriers remain active in managing capacity through blank sailings, schedule changes and network adjustments. This can result in cargo being rolled to later sailings or vessel schedules changing at relatively short notice.
Across our network, we are seeing more schedule volatility than earlier in the year, particularly on services from North Asia into Australia and New Zealand.
For customers with critical inventory requirements, published transit times should be treated as a guide rather than a guarantee. Additional planning time should be considered where supply chains are sensitive to delays.
Air Freight Market
Global air cargo demand remains active, although growth is moderating and airline cost pressures remain elevated.
Demand continues to be supported by e-commerce activity, inventory replenishment and ongoing supply chain diversification throughout Asia. At the same time, airlines continue to face cost pressure from elevated fuel prices and operational disruptions linked to geopolitical events.
Whilst capacity remains available across most major air freight trade lanes, securing preferred uplift dates is becoming more challenging in some markets. Customers moving urgent or time-sensitive freight should continue to secure bookings as early as possible and maintain flexibility around uplift dates where practical.
Global Trade and Geopolitical Update
Geopolitical developments continue to influence global supply chains.
The ongoing situation in the Middle East remains a key area of focus for shipping lines and airlines alike. Whilst major services continue to operate, disruptions to traditional trade routes have increased operating costs and reduced schedule certainty across parts of the global network.
At the same time, changing trade policies and tariff discussions continue to influence sourcing decisions, manufacturing activity and global freight flows throughout Asia.
Whilst these developments are not directly impacting all Australia and New Zealand supply chains, they continue to shape global freight markets and carrier network decisions.
ANZ Supply Chain Outlook
Customers should also be aware of increasing cost pressures within domestic supply chains.
In Australia, transport operators are preparing for higher fuel costs following the scheduled expiry of the Federal Government’s temporary fuel excise reduction from 1 July 2026. This may place upward pressure on domestic transport costs during the second half of the year.
Warehousing, labour and equipment costs also remain elevated across both Australia and New Zealand, reinforcing the importance of reviewing total landed cost rather than focusing solely on international freight rates.
What We’re Watching
Our team continues to closely monitor:
- Blank sailings and capacity reductions across Asia-Pacific trade lanes.
- Equipment availability throughout North Asia.
- Schedule changes and vessel omissions.
- Fuel and bunker cost movements.
- Middle East developments and their impact on global carrier networks.
- Trade and tariff policy changes affecting global sourcing patterns.
Whilst none of these issues are currently causing widespread disruption, they all have the potential to influence freight costs, transit times and supply chain reliability in the months ahead.
Recommended Actions
Based on current market conditions, Seabridge recommends customers:
- Secure bookings earlier than normal for July and August shipments.
- Share forecast volumes where possible to improve capacity planning.
- Review inventory levels for critical products and raw materials.
- Allow additional contingency for time-sensitive shipments.
- Engage with your Seabridge representative early where delivery dates are critical.
Forward planning continues to be the most effective way to manage cost and minimise disruption in the current market.
Seabridge Insight
The market is becoming firmer, but it is not becoming unmanageable.
Unlike the disruption experienced during the pandemic, cargo is generally moving well and port operations remain stable. The current challenge is different: tighter vessel space, more blank sailings and less schedule certainty are making planning more important.
For importers and exporters, the focus should be on control. That means booking earlier, sharing forecasts, reviewing critical inventory and allowing additional lead time where delivery dates are sensitive.
Businesses that act early will be best placed to manage cost, protect service levels and keep their supply chains moving through the second half of 2026.
At Seabridge, our role is simple: provide clarity, create options and deliver dependable supply chain outcomes, regardless of market conditions.
