Australia
New Zealand As we enter 2026, global supply chains remain finely balanced. Pre-Chinese New Year demand, evolving carrier network strategies, rising landside costs, and a series of interconnected global risk factors continue to shape freight outcomes for Australian and New Zealand importers and exporters.
This update combines Seabridge’s on-the-ground operational intelligence with trusted market analysis to provide context, clarity and practical guidance for decision-makers navigating an increasingly complex logistics environment.
Global market overview
- Pre-Chinese New Year (CNY) demand is accelerating, with carriers managing capacity through blank sailings, service realignments and early General Rate Increases (GRIs).
- The Drewry World Container Index has firmed in early January, signalling renewed pricing momentum in global container markets.
- Air cargo demand remains resilient, supporting air freight as a contingency option where ocean reliability is challenged.
Schedule reliability — global improvement, local challenges
Global liner schedule reliability has shown modest improvement, however it remains below pre-pandemic norms.
Oceania reality check
Industry analysis in the IFCBAA/MPC International briefing indicates that Oceania schedule reliability remains materially below global averages, with on-time performance typically in the 30–40% range and multi-day delays still common at key gateways.
This reinforces the importance of:
- Building buffer time into inventory and production planning
- Setting realistic ETA expectations
- Engaging early during peak and disruption-prone periods
Capacity deployment ahead of Chinese New Year
Capacity deployment trends indicate carriers and shippers are front-loading cargo earlier than historical norms ahead of CNY, tightening space availability earlier in the cycle and increasing the risk of rolled bookings for late-cycle demand.
Shipments with February ready dates should plan for a minimum three-week booking lead time from cargo readiness to secure preferred sailings.
Ocean freight market update
China
- GRIs are expected from the second half of January, driven by pre-CNY demand and carrier capacity discipline.
- Space availability is tightening rapidly, particularly in Weeks 6–7 (pre-CNY) and Weeks 9–10 (post-holiday recovery).
- Congestion continues at major gateways including Shanghai and Ningbo, contributing to ongoing schedule variability.
South East Asia
Vietnam: January capacity remains relatively stable. February space is expected to tighten materially due to the Tết holiday, and early booking is recommended.
Indonesia: A late-January demand surge is expected as cargo is repositioned ahead of CNY. Reduced space availability is anticipated, with rate pressure through mid-February.
Malaysia and Thailand: While no widespread blank sailings have been announced, holiday-related labour constraints and rolling delays are expected to impact schedule reliability during the Lunar New Year period.
Global disruption drivers — why local impacts persist
In today’s logistics environment, disruption is rarely isolated. Weather, geopolitics, labour and infrastructure dynamics increasingly interact across regions, amplifying downstream effects for Asia-Pacific supply chains.
European winter weather — global flow-on effects
Seasonal winter weather across parts of Northern Europe continues to disrupt port operations, inland transport networks and vessel schedules. While regional in origin, these disruptions can delay return Asia sailings, disrupt equipment repositioning into Asia, and reduce schedule recovery across long-haul networks. This can translate into increased schedule variability and reduced space availability for Australia and New Zealand shippers.
Panama Canal and climate-related chokepoints
Climate-driven risks at key maritime chokepoints, including the Panama Canal, remain a structural consideration. Any renewed restrictions can prompt network rebalancing and equipment displacement, indirectly affecting Asia-Pacific capacity and equipment availability.
Geopolitics and trade policy
Ongoing trade policy uncertainty between major economies continues to influence sourcing, routing and compliance decisions in real time. For Australia and New Zealand, this can contribute to increased competition for capacity into Asia-Pacific markets and heightened scrutiny around origin, valuation and transhipment compliance.
Labour and infrastructure dynamics
Labour negotiations and inland transport constraints across parts of Europe and North America continue to present episodic risk, contributing to vessel bunching and equipment inefficiencies. Increasing carrier ownership and control of terminal infrastructure is also reshaping port economics and schedule recovery dynamics, a trend relevant across Australian and New Zealand gateways where landside cost pressure remains elevated.
Red Sea / Suez routing developments
There are early signs of cautious improvement in East–West shipping routes, with some carriers trialling additional trans-Suez services while continuing a stepwise approach driven by security conditions.
While improved routing may eventually ease global capacity pressure, near-term volatility remains and shippers should continue planning on the basis of ongoing disruption.
Operational delays and blank sailings (selected lanes)
Customers should be aware of the following blank sailings and schedule disruptions affecting Australia-bound services. These remain subject to change as carriers re-sequence networks:
- Jakarta to Sydney: COSCO / OOCL – Week 4
- Surabaya / Semarang to Sydney: OOCL and YML – Week 3
- Ho Chi Minh to Sydney: OOCL and PIL – Week 2
- South China / Hong Kong to Sydney: Week 6 (ANL, OOCL, COSCO) and Week 9 (Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen)
Australia and New Zealand — arrival costs and landside impacts
Australia — wharf and terminal cost trends
Rather than relying on a single static per-container figure, which varies by terminal, container size and service profile, the key message is that terminal access charges, infrastructure fees and ancillary landside costs across Australian ports continue to rise and remain a material component of total landed cost.
- Major terminal operators have issued industry notices signalling updated landside and ancillary tariff schedules effective from 1 January 2026.
- Independent analysis confirms terminal access charges and ancillary fees have trended upward nationally and continue to contribute to higher landed costs.
Landside charges are a non-negotiable component of the landed cost stack and can move independently of ocean freight rates. Customers should allow for this variability when forecasting budgets and pricing decisions.
Seabridge note: For budgeting accuracy, Seabridge can provide lane- and terminal-specific cost estimates at time of booking based on the nominated terminal, container type and delivery profile.
Customs, compliance and border considerations
Border agencies continue to emphasise accurate tariff classification and origin declarations, correct application of anti-dumping and concession codes, and documentation completeness during peak and disruption-prone periods.
Errors or late amendments during CNY can materially increase clearance risk.
Seabridge insight — reliability now rivals cost
In today’s market, reliability risk increasingly rivals freight cost. The lowest available rate often carries higher service risk during periods of network stress. Customers that plan early, diversify carrier exposure and integrate customs considerations into freight decisions are consistently better positioned to protect supply chain continuity.
Key public holidays (planning calendar)
- China: Chinese New Year — 16–23 February 2026
- Vietnam: Tết Holiday — 16–21 February 2026
- Indonesia: Imlek — 16–17 February 2026
- Malaysia: Lunar New Year — 17–18 February 2026
- Thailand: Lunar New Year — 16–18 February 2026
Looking ahead
Market conditions through February and early March are expected to remain tight and operationally complex. Customers with shipments planned for this period are encouraged to engage early with their Seabridge account manager to review booking strategies, factory readiness and contingency options.
At Seabridge, our focus remains on clear communication, proactive planning, and protecting supply chain continuity for customers across Australia and New Zealand.
Sources referenced include Sea-Intelligence, Drewry, IATA, IFCBAA/MPC International and Seabridge operational intelligence.
