Australia
New Zealand Update – 9 July 2026: Since publication, Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have drawn large-scale US retaliatory strikes, and the ceasefire is now in serious doubt. Carrier plans announced in early July for a gradual return to Red Sea transits are also now in question. Market data has moved with events: Drewry’s World Container Index has risen a further 9% to USD 4,530 per 40ft (up 61% year-on-year), announced blank sailings for the coming five weeks have doubled to a 7% cancellation rate as carriers step up capacity management, and oil prices have reversed sharply higher – the fuel-cost outlook below should be read in that light. Our core assessment is unchanged: expect firm rates, constrained Gulf shipping and continued Cape routing. We are monitoring developments and will update customers directly.
Key takeaways this month
- Ocean spot rates are at a 22-month high, with two rounds of rate increases on the Australia trade lane in July
- Space is tight ex-China and Southeast Asia and 40ft equipment is short. Book up to three weeks ahead
- 1 July cost adjustments have landed across biosecurity, wharf ancillary and terminal handling charges
- The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and US tariff settings face a decision point on 24 July
- Trade settings are shifting: the NZ–India FTA is signed, EU CBAM is now live, and the AU–EU FTA is progressing
As we enter the second half of 2026, global supply chains are being shaped by an early peak season, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and rising regulatory costs. Conditions are nowhere near as difficult as the pandemic years. Even so, the second half of 2026 will be considerably easier for businesses that plan ahead than for those that don’t.
Ocean Freight
Rates at a 22-Month High
The Drewry World Container Index jumped 5% in the final week of June to USD 4,166 per 40ft container, its highest level since September 2024, and further rate increases and peak season surcharges take effect through July. Only 3% of scheduled East–West sailings have been cancelled for the next five weeks. Carriers clearly expect demand to hold.
The Australia trade lane is following suit. The Shanghai–Melbourne rate reached USD 1,808 per TEU in mid-June, more than double the same time last year, while the Busan–Australia rate jumped 10% in a single week to USD 3,096 per 40ft. Carriers have announced two successive rounds of rate increases across the Australia lane for July.
Space, Equipment and Connections
Carriers continue to manage capacity through blank sailings, rotation changes and controlled allocations, with blank sailings scheduled across Shanghai, Ningbo and Shenzhen through the first half of July. Overbooking at Shanghai and Shenzhen is causing more frequent rollovers and offloads. Several lines have responded by offering priority loading options for cargo that must depart on its confirmed sailing, and congestion is building at the transhipment hubs of Singapore, Hong Kong and Port Klang, which raises the risk of missed connections.
Equipment is short for 40GP and 40HQ containers at selected origins. The pressure runs in both directions: Australia’s mid-year agricultural export program is competing for the same tight equipment and northbound space, and New Zealand-bound cargo is experiencing short-notice cancellations from Shanghai and Guangzhou, causing backlogs and split shipments. Refrigerated equipment is in short supply through the export season too, so temperature-controlled cargo should be booked earliest of all.
We now recommend booking up to three weeks in advance from China and Southeast Asia. Importers should also keep in mind that Q3 is when pre-Christmas stock ships. Bookings brought forward now protect seasonal delivery dates.
Europe and UK Services
European services are heavily booked through peak season and bookings are recommended four or more weeks ahead of departure. Summer heatwave conditions are also slowing terminal operations at several Benelux and German ports.
Project and Oversized Cargo
Strong renewable energy activity across Australia and New Zealand is driving demand for oversized components such as transformers and battery energy storage systems, which are increasingly carried on multipurpose vessels as unit sizes grow and dangerous goods rules tighten. Heavy-lift space is in demand globally, so vessel bookings for out-of-gauge cargo should be secured well ahead of project milestones.
New Capacity from Late July
Carriers are responding to the strength of the Australia trade. Maersk’s new Qilin service (Shanghai to Sydney and Melbourne) commences 24 July, followed by ANL’s ACX service on 27 July. This may ease space later in Q3. Until the new tonnage beds in, expect rates to remain firm and trend upwards.
Air Freight
Global air cargo demand rose 6.0% year-on-year in May against capacity growth of just 1.9%, keeping load factors and yields firm. Asia-Pacific demand grew 8.0%. Middle East capacity contracted 8.9%, which makes Asian hubs the more reliable transhipment path for European traffic.
Jet fuel prices fell 16.3% month-on-month in May, narrowing the air-to-sea cost spread and improving air freight’s relative value for urgent or high-value cargo. Closer to home, New Zealand import air capacity remains tight from Asia with rates rising across origins, while Australian import capacity has improved across major lanes.
Geopolitics and Trade Policy
Middle East: Cheaper Fuel, Constrained Shipping
Progress in US–Iran negotiations has pushed Brent below USD 72 per barrel, the largest quarterly fall since 2008. That should gradually ease bunker and jet fuel surcharges, though the relief will take time to reach freight invoices.
Operationally, the picture is far less encouraging. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to most commercial shipping. An interim agreement signed on 17 June allows fee-free transit for 60 days, but Iran continues to insist on controlling vessel routes, and security incidents are still occurring, including a container ship grounding in the strait this week. Gulf destinations are being served largely via feeder connections. The large-scale return of container shipping to the Red Sea now looks unlikely in 2026, which keeps Cape of Good Hope routings, and the capacity they absorb, in place. Supply chains dependent on Gulf-origin cargo, including chemical and industrial feedstocks, should maintain contingency sourcing.
US Tariffs: 24 July Decision Point
Current US Section 122 tariff surcharges automatically expire on 24 July unless replaced or extended. Nobody can say with confidence which way this will go, and that uncertainty is driving the frontloading behind the current Transpacific rate spikes. Shippers with US exposure should expect volatility around this date.
Australia & New Zealand
Cost Changes from 1 July
The new financial year has brought several confirmed adjustments:
- Wharf ancillary charges up to 2.5% higher, driven mainly by empty container park fees (approximately AUD 5–15 per container)
- Government biosecurity and imported food charges up approximately AUD 2–3 per transaction
- Shipping line Terminal Handling Charges up 2–4.5% (approximately AUD 15–30 per container)
- Fuel-related transport costs expected to rise as the temporary fuel excise relief expires
- New Zealand’s annual alcohol excise adjustment, which also took effect on 1 July
These sit within a longer trend. NineSquared’s 2026 Landside Port Charges Index shows landside charges rising at more than double the rate of inflation, with average empty container park notification fees up from $6.01 in 2018 to $134.40 today. Individually these adjustments look modest. Together they add real cost, which is why we keep coming back to the same advice: review total landed costs, not just base freight rates.
New Zealand: Inter-Island Capacity Crunch
Pacifica’s coastal vessel Moana Chief enters dry dock from late July for at least three months, with no replacement vessel confirmed. Interislander is running a reduced maintenance timetable until late September. Together these will significantly constrain North–South Island container capacity, so alternative routings for inter-island cargo should be arranged early. Separately, Maersk has introduced a Port Chalmers surcharge from 1 July (NZD 35 per 20ft, NZD 70 per 40ft).
Border and Biosecurity
Australian Border Force holds continue to delay imports, with limited transparency around how shipments are selected. Complete, accurate documentation remains the best protection.
The 2026–27 BMSB season applies to targeted goods shipped from risk countries from 1 September, and preparation should begin now. Vehicles, machinery, equipment and parts are target high-risk and require treatment by approved offshore providers. Several chemical, plastics and paper chapters are target-risk and subject to random inspection. Goods shipped as breakbulk, flat rack or open top must be treated offshore, with loading required within 120 hours of treatment; untreated cargo is denied discharge on arrival. One useful exemption: goods shipped in ISO tanks are not subject to the measures at all.
Australia also recorded its first H5 avian influenza detections in June, confined to wild seabirds in Western Australia and South Australia. There are no poultry cases and no trade impact, but food and agricultural exporters should keep an eye on it given the export certification implications if the situation changes.
Customs & Trade Advisory
Three trade policy developments deserve attention:
NZ–India Free Trade Agreement: Signed on 27 April 2026 and now progressing through ratification. Once fully phased in, 95% of New Zealand’s exports to India will be tariff-free or preferentially treated, with immediate elimination for sheepmeat, wool and most forestry products (dairy is excluded). Indian goods will enter New Zealand duty-free from entry into force. Reviewing tariff classifications and rules of origin ahead of time means preferential rates can be claimed from day one.
Australia–EU FTA: Negotiations continue, with entry into force still estimated to be around twelve months away. The agreement is expected to eliminate the 5% duty on the majority of European-origin imports into Australia, so it belongs in medium-term sourcing decisions.
EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): The definitive regime took effect on 1 January 2026. Australian and New Zealand exporters of iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers and hydrogen to the EU now need to supply verified emissions data to their European customers. Without it, EU importers must apply conservative default values that increase certificate costs and erode competitiveness. The first declarations, covering 2026 imports, are due by September 2027, so emissions data processes should be established this year.
Key Dates to Watch
- 10 July – Announced Transpacific peak season surcharges take effect
- 15 July – Further carrier peak season surcharges take effect, including HMM at USD 3,000 per 40ft
- 24 July – US Section 122 tariffs expire unless replaced or extended
- 24 & 27 July – New Maersk (Qilin) and ANL (ACX) services commence on the Asia–Australia trade
- Late July – Moana Chief enters dry dock, constraining NZ inter-island capacity for at least three months
- Mid-August – The 60-day US–Iran interim agreement window was due to close; the agreement is now in serious doubt following this week’s strikes
- 1 September – The 2026–27 BMSB season begins for goods shipped from risk countries
- Late September – Interislander’s reduced maintenance timetable ends
What Importers and Exporters Should Be Doing
- Book early. Three weeks ahead ex-China and Southeast Asia, four-plus for Europe, and even earlier for refrigerated and out-of-gauge cargo.
- Confirm cargo readiness before booking to minimise rollover risk, and consider priority loading where a confirmed departure is critical.
- Rebuild landed cost models with current all-in rates capturing the 1 July changes and July rate increases.
- Start BMSB preparations now and keep documentation accurate to avoid border holds.
- Review FTA and CBAM readiness – classifications, rules of origin and emissions data – ahead of the changes above.
- Stay in close contact with your logistics provider on schedules, allocations and market developments.
Seabridge Outlook
We expect freight markets to remain firm through July and into the traditional peak, supported by carrier capacity management, strong demand and geopolitical uncertainty. New capacity entering the Australia trade from late July may ease space as Q3 progresses, and the 24 July US tariff decision will be an important signal for Transpacific demand.
Seabridge monitors global freight markets daily, with origin and destination intelligence drawn from our own network, including Cardinal Partnership offices across China, Southeast Asia, India, the UK and Europe. As licensed customs brokers in Australia and New Zealand, we track regulatory change alongside the freight market.
To discuss how current conditions affect your supply chain, contact your local Seabridge representative.
Sources: Drewry World Container Index; IATA Air Cargo Market Analysis (May 2026); Shanghai Containerised Freight Index; Ship & Bunker; NineSquared Landside Port & Air Cargo Terminal Charges Index 2026; The Loadstar; Freightos; NZ MFAT; European Commission; DAFF; NZ MPI; Seabridge Global Logistics operations data.
This update is provided for general information only and does not constitute specific commercial advice. Market conditions change rapidly – contact Seabridge for current rates and guidance specific to your cargo.
