Australia
New Zealand Global logistics conditions entering February are best described as softer on pricing but still operationally uneven. Spot rates have eased in some corridors; however, reliability, capacity deployment decisions, and landside and border costs remain the main drivers of real outcomes for Australian and New Zealand importers and exporters.
This update is written for supply chain and procurement leaders who need practical clarity on what is changing, what is stable, and how to plan across sea freight, air freight and customs and biosecurity.
Seabridge Point of View
In early 2026, the most material risk is not the headline freight rate. It is reliability and variability.
Carrier network decisions (particularly around the Red Sea), post–Lunar New Year recovery, and rising landside and border costs can impact total landed cost more than small movements in spot pricing. The best outcomes are being achieved through earlier planning, realistic lead times and tighter document discipline.
Market markers (fact-based reference points)
- Ocean spot index: Drewry’s World Container Index decreased 7% to US$1,959 per 40ft (5 February 2026).
- Schedule reliability: Sea-Intelligence reported global schedule reliability at 62.8% in December 2025, with average delay for late arrivals 5.04 days.
- Bunker cost input: Singapore VLSFO was US$485.50/mt on 9 February 2026.
What’s driving February conditions
- Post-LNY recovery is affecting readiness dates, cut-offs and booking responsiveness.
- Capacity discipline continues through selective blank sailings and network adjustments.
- Red Sea and Suez routing decisions remain a key swing factor for global capacity.
- Landside and border costs remain under upward pressure across ANZ supply chains.
Seabridge Recommendations
- Sea freight: confirm bookings earlier than usual through February and build buffer into ETD and ETA assumptions.
- Air freight: for time-critical, perishable, pharmaceutical or high-value cargo, secure uplift earlier and confirm contingency routings.
- Customs and biosecurity: submit documents early and verify country of origin, tariff classification and wood packaging compliance before cargo is loaded.
- Budgeting: treat landside charges as a material variable in total landed cost.
Sea Freight — market conditions
Broad global indices have eased in early February, which is typical as demand normalises after holiday peaks.
Service performance remains uneven and average vessel delays remain significant enough to affect inventory and production planning.
For ANZ, this means treating February sailing schedules and arrival windows as probabilistic rather than certain. Build buffer into downstream transport bookings, receiving windows and production timelines.
Red Sea and Suez — the key swing factor for global capacity
Routing through the Red Sea and Suez remains the most important global variable because it changes voyage length and therefore effective capacity.
From mid-February 2026, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have announced that one Gemini service (ME11) will transition through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal with naval assistance.
A wider return to the Red Sea would materially increase effective capacity and influence global freight conditions in 2026.
For ANZ, this matters even for Asia–Pacific trades because Red Sea decisions influence vessel deployment, equipment availability and schedule recovery across global networks.
Lunar New Year — ongoing impacts across Asia origins
February remains a recovery period across many Asian origins due to factory shutdowns, reduced staffing and slower document processing.
- Slower booking confirmations and documentation processing in mid-February.
- Higher roll risk where cargo readiness is close to vessel cut-off.
- Tight space on preferred sailings as backlog clears.
Seabridge guidance is to allow a minimum of three weeks from cargo readiness to preferred sailing during the post-holiday recovery window.
Asia office operations — CNY/LNY holiday schedule
- Hong Kong: 17–20 February
- Mainland China: 15–23 February (14 and 28 February are working days)
- Taiwan: 14–22 February
- Singapore and Malaysia: 17–18 February
- Vietnam: 16–20 February
- Thailand: 16–18 February
- Indonesia: 16–17 February
- India: business as usual
Even where ports remain operational, reduced staffing across suppliers, forwarders and brokers can slow cargo readiness and documentation.
Air Freight — market conditions (February 2026)
Air freight remains essential for ANZ supply chains where speed, shelf-life, compliance or production continuity matters. The market is stable globally but lane-specific in practice.
IATA reports that global air cargo demand increased 3.4% in 2025 (international +4.2%), while capacity increased 3.7% (international +5.1%).
Even where global capacity appears balanced, aircraft availability constraints can limit how quickly airlines can add capacity when demand spikes.
For ANZ, air capacity is generally available but can tighten quickly for premium, temperature-controlled or urgent cargo. Late bookings and rebookings are the most common drivers of cost volatility.
Seabridge guidance is to align uplift planning early, confirm alternative routings, and avoid emergency air where possible.
Landside and port conditions — Australia and New Zealand
Landside costs and operational variability continue to be key determinants of total landed cost. Terminal access, empty container logistics and transport availability can materially affect delivery performance even when ocean and air capacity is available.
For New Zealand shippers, Port of Tauranga provides live updates on vessel working status and ETDs.
Plan inland transport with realistic buffers and monitor terminal working windows and VBS rebooking risk during disruption periods.
Customs and Biosecurity — February focus
Border compliance remains a critical path risk, particularly for food and beverage, agricultural products, pharmaceuticals and shipments using wood packaging.
Australia
- Biosecurity scrutiny remains high for risk goods and non-compliant wood packaging.
- Documentation quality is a leading cause of avoidable delays.
- ISPM-15 compliance is frequently reviewed.
New Zealand
- MPI maintains strict inspection regimes on risk pathways.
- Weather and landside disruption can compound clearance timing.
Early documents, accurate classification and pre-checks on wood packaging are the best safeguards against delays.
Weather and disruption watch — February
Pilbara ports, including Port Hedland, were closed in early February due to cyclone risk. In New Zealand, severe weather in the Tauranga region has also affected operations.
Build contingency into time-sensitive supply chains through February and March.
Regulatory watch — Europe cost impacts
The EU Emissions Trading System for maritime increases to 70% coverage in 2026 (for 2025 emissions) and to 100% from 2027 onward.
Expect continued carrier surcharges on Europe-linked shipments and factor these into total landed cost.
Forward look — March 2026
- Whether additional services return via the Red Sea and Suez.
- Speed of post-LNY production recovery across Asia.
- Further landside cost increases across ANZ ports and depots.
- Air capacity allocation changes as airlines rebalance networks.
- Potential congestion spikes as volumes normalise post-holiday.
If you would like to discuss any aspect of this market update or understand how these conditions may affect your shipments, please contact your local Seabridge representative, or reach out via our website and we will connect you with the right team.
