Market Update - July 2025

Published: 22 August 2025 | Seabridge Global Logistics

Supply chains across Australia and New Zealand are navigating a period of complex change. Evolving global rate trends, capacity constraints, and shifting Asia-Pacific dynamics are demanding new approaches to secure continuity, control costs, and maintain competitiveness. This update delivers the latest region-specific insights and practical strategies for informed decision-making.

National Freight Strategy: Guiding the Future of Supply Chains

The Australian Government has released its refreshed National Freight and Supply Chain Strategy and Action Plan, establishing a roadmap to build more productive, resilient, and sustainable freight networks.

The four core pillars are:

• Productivity: Driving efficiency, reliability, and infrastructure utilisation.

• Resilience: Preparing supply chains for shocks from weather, geopolitics, or global disruptions.

• Decarbonisation: Accelerating the transition to low-emission solutions and aligning with regulatory requirements.

• Data: Expanding access to transparent, real-time data for smarter procurement and operations.

For logistics professionals, this means new opportunities in infrastructure planning, digitalisation, compliance, and decarbonisation. Actions such as the Freight Infrastructure Investment Framework and enhanced modelling will guide investment, risk assessments, and partnerships.

Ocean Freight: Peak Season in Full Swing

Key Indicators:

• Drewry’s World Container Index fell to US$2,350/FEU (14 Aug 2025) after a ten-week global slide. However, Oceania importers face rising costs as GRIs, PSS, and surcharges outweigh global easing.

• Global schedule reliability improved to 67.4% in June, with top alliances exceeding 90% on-time arrivals.

• Bunker prices dropped to US$529.50/mt, providing room to renegotiate BAF clauses.

Peak Season Dynamics (July–October):

• Intensified demand from Asia: Driven by retail replenishment, new launches, and year-end deadlines.

• Capacity squeeze: Full vessels reported weeks in advance, with rollovers and equipment shortages (especially 40’HC and reefer containers).

• Port congestion: Bottlenecks at Singapore, Port Klang, Busan, Sydney, and Auckland are adding delays.

• Escalating surcharges: Carriers have introduced additional GRIs, PSS, and emergency fees — for example, Maersk (US$300/TEU from 4 Aug) and ANL (US$500/TEU mid-Aug, plus further increases from Sep).

• Reduced booking windows: Late bookings risk rollovers and higher spot rates.

Strategies for Shippers:

• Book 4–6 weeks in advance and remain flexible with load ports and routings.

• Diversify across carriers to avoid reliance on a single partner.

• Lock in rate validity and capacity commitments where possible.

• Update cost models to include surcharges and Fremantle’s new port fees (July and October 2025).

• Build additional inventory buffers and prepare contingency routings.

Air Freight Outlook: Capacity Under Pressure, Demand Rising

• Asia-Pacific carriers reported +9% year-on-year cargo growth in June 2025 (IATA). Global cargo load factor now stands at 45.5%.

• Sydney Airport continues to restore international bellyhold capacity with passenger recovery, while Auckland Airport commissioned a new cargo facility in March 2025 to expand throughput.

• Infrastructure upgrades are ongoing, but margins remain tight — global air cargo profitability is forecast at just 1.9% in 2025.

What this means for supply chains:

• Tactical use of air freight can save 2–4 days compared to expedited ocean freight — particularly valuable for high-value or time-sensitive cargo.

• Secure space early; capacity can tighten around public holidays in Asia.

• Move quickly to adopt digital documentation (eAWB, eClearance) to speed processing.

Customs & Biosecurity: BMSB Season 2025/26

• Season dates: 1 September 2025 – 30 April 2026.

• Expanded risk list: Japan and South Korea are now included alongside existing high-risk origins.

• Air freight inspections: Targeted checks on goods ex-USA and China.

• New treatment option: Ethyl Formate + CO₂ approved from 1 September 2025.

Shipper priorities:

• Use only DAFF-approved offshore treatment providers.

• Audit compliance documentation before vessel cut-off.

• Build buffer time for onshore inspections.

Port & Network Developments

• Fremantle Ports implemented price increases from 1 July 2025, with further changes from 1 October 2025.

• New Zealand services: OOCL has added Wellington to its ANS Trans-Tasman service (September 2025), creating new routing options.

• Other carrier realignments (including service exits) continue to reshape Oceania networks — monitor closely for opportunities and risks.

Risk & Disruption Watch

• Red Sea security: Vessel attacks continue, adding transit time and risk. Maintain contingency routings for high-value or urgent SKUs.

• Seasonal holidays: Vietnam (30 Aug–2 Sep) and Malaysia (31 Aug, 16 Sep) — plan shipments around closures.

• Extreme weather: Typhoon season in East Asia may disrupt schedules; build buffers into planning.

Next Steps for August–September

• Forecast and secure space early: Maintain rolling 12-week forecasts.

• Integrate new policy priorities: Embed productivity, resilience, sustainability, and compliance into procurement and vendor management.

• Refresh cost models: Adjust for port fees, bunker changes, and carrier surcharges.

• Scenario planning: Model landed costs under multiple disruption and rate scenarios.

Why Partner with Seabridge?

Seabridge empowers supply chain leaders with actionable intelligence, tailored analytics, and responsive solutions. Our team helps you navigate volatility, optimise spend, and safeguard on-time delivery in complex conditions — turning uncertainty into operational advantage.