Market Update - November 2025

Summary

As we move through November, global trade continues to show resilience. World trade has outperformed expectations this year, with the World Trade Organization lifting its 2025 forecast to 2.4 per cent and flagging the Asia–Pacific as the fastest-growing export region. At the same time, early indicators point to a softer outlook for 2026 as the global economy absorbs higher tariffs, policy uncertainty and shifting demand patterns, particularly around consumer goods.

For businesses in Australia and New Zealand, market conditions remain defined by firm ocean rates, tight but functioning capacity, and ongoing schedule variability. The focus moving into year end is on planning ahead, maintaining reliability and closely monitoring changes across key trade lanes and local port operations.

Global Trade and Economic Conditions

Recent data shows global trade growth improving through 2025, supported by rising demand for technology and manufactured goods and by inventory rebuilding in several major markets. Trade in high-value technology and AI-related hardware is contributing disproportionately to growth, helping to offset softer demand in some consumer categories. However, the WTO’s revised outlook for 2026 highlights the need for businesses to prepare for a more conservative demand environment next year.

• The global merchandise trade forecast has been increased to 2.4 per cent for 2025.
• Growth for 2026 has been revised down to 0.5 per cent due to policy uncertainty, tariff risk and cost pressures.
• The Asia–Pacific region remains the strongest performing area for goods movement, with export growth outpacing other regions.
• Trade in technology and AI-related goods is accounting for a significant share of overall trade growth despite representing a smaller portion of total volumes.

Global container freight indices point to continuing volatility. Composite benchmarks that track major east–west trades have shown periods of easing followed by renewed upward movement in early November, with average spot rate levels still well above pre-pandemic baselines. While these are global composites rather than Australia–New Zealand specific measures, they indicate that underlying pricing remains sensitive to shifts in capacity, demand and carrier scheduling strategies.

Schedule reliability has also stabilised. Recent liner performance data indicates that global on-time arrival performance is around the mid-60 per cent mark, with the average delay for late vessels close to five days. This is a notable improvement on the lows seen in previous years, but it still leaves limited margin for error in tightly timed supply chains.

For Australian and New Zealand supply chains, this backdrop indicates relatively stable activity through the remainder of 2025, followed by a potentially slower environment next year. Publicly available port and trade statistics for Australia show container volumes in the first half of 2025 growing at less than 1 per cent year on year, with full exports rising slightly faster than imports. Imports, however, still significantly exceed exports in TEU terms, reinforcing the region’s structural import-heavy profile and the reliance on empty container repositioning.

Rates on key Asia–Oceania trades are expected to remain firm through the northern winter and into the Chinese New Year period in mid February 2026, particularly if carriers maintain capacity discipline, blank sailing programmes and selective port omissions.

Ocean Freight Market Overview

Asia to Australia and New Zealand

The Asia–Oceania ocean freight market remains generally firm and capacity constrained through November.

• General rate increases on South East Asia to Australia lanes of approximately USD 200 to 300 per TEU have lifted rates by around 10 to 15 per cent month on month, with some carriers signalling further increases into late November and December.
• North Asia to Australia capacity remains tight, with current rates typically ranging between USD 1,600 and 1,950 per TEU depending on the service tier and routing, and with announced general rate increases on some loops.
• On China to Australia lanes, indicative spot levels have moved higher through the peak-season period, with recent weekly averages showing mid single-digit month-on-month increases.
• Asia–Australia and Asia–New Zealand trades have seen rate restorations, revised surcharge structures and equipment-related adjustments through October and November.

The post–Golden Week recovery period has brought some challenges across the Asia–Oceania network, including congestion, roll pools and weather-related impacts into October and November. These are gradually easing, but delays and bunching remain a feature on some services, particularly on high-volume mainline loops.

Blank sailings continue across several global routes, including some services into Australia and New Zealand. This has reinforced firm rate levels and the need for proactive booking, even as some global indices show periods of softening.

Australia and New Zealand also remain structurally import-heavy markets. Imports significantly exceed exports in TEU terms, increasing reliance on empty container repositioning and contributing to ongoing cost pressure for regional importers, particularly where repositioning needs to support reefer and high-cube demand.

Operational Conditions in Asia and Transhipment Hubs

• Key ports in China have been working through Golden Week backlogs, with several days of vessel delay reported in some gateways due to bunching, holiday closures and adverse weather.
• Congestion at major transhipment hubs such as Singapore and Port Klang has created additional waiting time for some services and reduced flexibility for re-routing via alternative hubs.
• Some feeder and shuttle services into secondary ports have experienced schedule changes as carriers adjust rotations to protect mainline departures.
• Typhoon activity has eased and the monsoon in parts of South East Asia is expected to subside by mid December, which should support more reliable schedules provided demand and congestion remain manageable.

Port Operations in Australia

• Key gateways such as Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have been operating close to capacity at times, with vessel bunching and intermittent delays when weather or operational issues arise.
• Recent tracking suggests typical vessel delays of around two to three days at major Australian container ports, with some individual services experiencing longer waits during peak periods or after weather-related closures.
• High yard density and labour constraints continue to be recurring themes, and availability of 20-foot and refrigerated containers remains tight at times, particularly during export peaks.
• Industry and port authority updates highlight that landside performance can be variable, with truck turn times and slot availability occasionally impacted by terminal maintenance, equipment outages or short-notice operational changes.

Port Operations and Inland Conditions in New Zealand

• Ports such as Auckland and Tauranga have experienced vessel bunching, resulting in short-term spikes in container availability and longer truck wait times.
• Schedule changes remain common across North Asia and South East Asia services into New Zealand as carriers adjust rotations and capacity to manage congestion and demand.
• Rail works and infrastructure upgrades on key inland corridors have, at times, added to transit variability for some export flows.
• Coastal road and inland transport capacity can be tight at times, particularly around regions such as Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Canterbury during harvest-season peaks.

Given these conditions, importers and exporters should continue to build adequate lead time buffers, particularly for cargo transhipping through major Asian hubs or moving through ports with known congestion and weather exposure.

Less-than-Container Load (LCL) and Trans-Tasman Services

• China–Australia LCL lanes are experiencing strong demand following Golden Week and are expected to remain relatively tight until the final weeks of December, in line with typical peak-season patterns.
• South East Asia–Australia LCL services are generally stable, with fewer capacity constraints reported and more options for time-sensitive cargo.
• Trans-Tasman LCL services from Australia to New Zealand remain available and reliable, supporting regional distribution flows and replenishment strategies.

Air Freight Market Overview

Air cargo demand continues to outperform expectations through late 2025, with the Asia–Pacific region a key driver.

• Global air cargo tonnages are trending toward annual growth in the low single digits, with Asia–Pacific carriers recording some of the strongest gains.
• Recent data shows Asia–Pacific airlines achieving high single-digit to low double-digit year-on-year growth in several recent months, and leading all regions in year-to-date demand growth.
• Spot rates in the Asia–Pacific region have edged higher in early November, while capacity remains broadly balanced between dedicated freighter aircraft and recovering passenger belly space.

On China–Australia lanes, rates have increased as we move through the peak season, particularly from Shanghai and Hong Kong into Melbourne and Sydney. Space availability needs to be monitored closely, as capacity into key Australian gateways can be tight at certain points in the week, especially for late-booked and dense cargo.

Global tariff changes, particularly involving the United States and major Asian exporters, are adding an element of uncertainty to medium-term airfreight planning. There are early signs of peak-season demand, although expectations for a major surge remain more muted than in previous years.

In Australia and New Zealand, capacity is generally available, although time-sensitive and higher value cargo continues to attract premiums during peak demand periods. Shipments for Black Friday, Christmas and Chinese New Year are best booked early to ensure uplift on preferred routings and service levels.

Trade, Regulatory and Biosecurity Considerations

Australia

• Domestic conditions remain steady, with demand gradually shifting toward private-sector activity and selective consumer spending.
• Import volumes from Asia–Oceania remain stable, though weather-related disruptions and port omissions continue to affect scheduling from time to time.
• Biosecurity delays have improved slightly, with average clearance times at major ports such as Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane reducing from around 36 hours to approximately 30 hours following the deployment of additional inspectors and process refinements.
• The Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) season is fully in effect, increasing inspection rates on cargo originating from identified risk countries, particularly for commodities such as furniture, automotive parts and machinery.
• Seasonal pest pressures remain elevated compared with previous years, and targeted inspections on selected commodity groups continue to be applied at the border.
• AQIS and ICS system upgrades in late October caused intermittent delays, leading to declaration lags of several hours; these have largely stabilised but underline the need for timely and accurate documentation.

Trade and Tariff Developments

• The Australia–UK Free Trade Agreement continues to deliver phased reductions in duties on qualifying UK-origin manufactured goods, offering opportunities for importers to review landed cost models.
• The United States has reinstated and maintained Section 232 duty exemptions for Australian aluminium and steel exports, preserving favourable access conditions for affected exporters.
• Ongoing global tariff adjustments and trade remedial measures, particularly involving major economies, are likely to influence sourcing strategies and medium-term freight flows into 2026.

New Zealand

• Port schedules, rail work and weather conditions continue to shape import and export timings, particularly for primary-industry exports.
• Seasonal biosecurity settings remain active for a number of commodity groups, including horticulture and animal products.
• Agribusiness and food exporters should anticipate possible inspection-related delays and plan documentation and lead times accordingly, particularly for refrigerated and high-risk consignments.

Domestic Intermodal Conditions

Australia

• Domestic demand has softened slightly on some corridors, particularly across high-volume VIC and NSW import lanes, while essential goods, agribusiness and construction-related flows remain more stable.
• Fuel prices have risen by several per cent month on month, adding pressure to rate negotiations on longer-haul road and rail corridors such as Melbourne–Adelaide and Sydney–Brisbane, with some carriers applying adjusted fuel surcharges.
• Port-adjacent operations are generally stable, although occasional equipment maintenance, industrial activity and short-term yard congestion can affect truck turn times at some terminals.
• Domestic operators continue to focus on fleet utilisation and equipment positioning, which can influence lead times for regional and remote deliveries.

New Zealand

• Exports from the South Island, including meat, dairy and timber, are ramping up ahead of seasonal demand, driving higher dehire and repositioning movements.
• Coastal road capacity can be tight around key producing regions, particularly during harvest-season transport peaks and periods of adverse weather.
• Rail and coastal shipping options continue to play an important role in connecting inland producers with major export ports, with occasional schedule adjustments around infrastructure works.

Risks and Opportunities

Key Risks

• Carrier capacity management, including blank sailings and selected port omissions, which can reduce flexibility and increase transit times.
• Weather-related disruptions, particularly along Australia’s east coast and across exposed New Zealand ports.
• Potentially weaker global demand in 2026, with implications for pricing, inventory planning and longer-term freight commitments.
• Ongoing regulatory and biosecurity changes, including seasonal measures, that can affect clearance times and import costs.
• Landside congestion at ports and intermodal terminals, which can impact truck turn times, storage costs and delivery reliability.

Opportunities

• Reviewing contract versus spot exposure to improve resilience and cost predictability in an environment of shifting demand and rate volatility.
• Achieving better allocation outcomes where accurate volume forecasting and timely bookings are in place, particularly for peak-season and time-sensitive cargo.
• Making greater use of visibility and exception-management tools to identify and address disruptions early, reducing downstream impacts on production and customer service.
• Leveraging trade agreement benefits, such as duty reductions under the Australia–UK FTA, to optimise landed cost and sourcing strategies.
• Exploring supply chain resilience measures, including dual-sourcing, regionalisation and selectively increasing safety stock for critical components or inputs.

Outlook for Late 2025 and Early 2026

Ocean freight rates into Australia and New Zealand are expected to remain elevated but relatively stable through the end of 2025. Any downward movement in global indices is likely to be moderated by carrier capacity adjustments, equipment imbalances and ongoing port congestion in key markets.

Air cargo demand is expected to remain firm through the seasonal peak, with some easing anticipated into the first quarter of 2026 as peak retail and perishables demand subsides. The broader trade outlook for 2026 is more cautious, with slower global growth and tariff-related uncertainty expected to shape budgeting and contracting decisions.

For supply chain operators across Australia and New Zealand, the months ahead will require continued focus on visibility, reliability and early booking for both sea and air freight, together with preparation for a more conservative global trade environment in 2026. Aligning sourcing, inventory and freight strategies will be critical to balancing cost, service and risk.

How Seabridge Can Support You

Seabridge supports Australian and New Zealand businesses with integrated sea freight, air freight, customs brokerage and specialised logistics services across key industries including food and beverage, agribusiness, liquid logistics, pharmaceuticals and retail.

Support can include:

• Development of a comprehensive 2026 supply chain strategy, including scenario planning for different demand and pricing environments
• Route optimisation and service mix planning across ocean, air and intermodal options
• Enhanced visibility, reporting and performance monitoring tailored to your supply chain
• Guidance on lead times, general rate increases, capacity planning and biosecurity requirements

For further assistance or to discuss upcoming import and export requirements, please contact your Seabridge representative.